Sports Illustrated’s Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the action on Thursday, June 27.
Chicago Sky head coach Teresa Weatherspoon talks to her team
Now that the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship has been decided, the league is ramping back up again on Thursday night with four games in action, including a standalone night game for the Indiana Fever and Caitlin Clark.
The action on Thursday begins in the afternoon with the Commissioner’s Cup champion Minnesota Lynx taking on the Dallas Wings, but I’m focused on two of the later games – the Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky and the Fever-Seattle Storm matchups.
Indiana has played some great basketball in the month of June, going 6-3 overall, but the total may be the way to for the late-night tilt in Seattle.
Meanwhile, Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky are in the mix for a playoff spot this season and may be getting a little disrespected at home against the defending champions.
Let’s break down the plays for Thursday’s WNBA action!
Indiana Fever-Seattle Storm OVER 168 (-110)
There’s been one constant in Fever games this season, and that’s been plenty of points.
The Fever have played 18 games this season and 14 of them have ended up going over the projected total, by far the most in the WNBA.
Both the Fever and Storm have been over .500 against the spread this season, so I think the real advantage is in betting the total in this standalone game.
It’s been a combination of poor defense (the Fever are dead last in defensive rating), a solid offense (Indiana is fifth in offensive rating) and strong shooting (the Fever are fourth in effective field goal percentage) that has made Caitlin Clark and company and OVER bettors dream.
Seattle is much better defensively (No. 3 in the league in defensive rating), but it does push the pace (No. 2 in the W), which is one thing the Fever (ninth in pace) haven’t done this season.
If Seattle controls the tempo, I could see this game turning into a track meet with the Fever providing very little defensive resistance.
The first two meetings between these teams finished with 168 and 191 combined points. With this total sitting below 170, I think it’s a prime spot to take an OVER.
Chicago Sky +11.5 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Aces
Call me crazy, but I think Chicago is undervalued in this spot as an 11.5-point underdog.
The Sky are just 6-9 against the spread this season, but they haven’t lost a game by 10 or more points since June 4 against the New York Liberty – their only loss by double-digits all season long.
Sure, the Aces are a tough team to beat when Chelsea Gray is healthy, but through her first two games it’s clear that she is not going to play her normal role just yet, and she’s been rusty shooting the ball in her time on the floor.
Gray has only appeared in two games for the Aces, playing 15:30 and 17:13 in those contests, but Las Vegas has gone 2-0. Still, the star guard has only scored five total points on 1-of-8 shooting from the field.
Chicago is better than a lot of people think, ranking sixth in the league in net rating (-1.2) and fifth in defensive rating. The Aces are just fifth in net rating (+2.8), a sign that oddsmakers may be still valuing them as the team that went 34-6 last season.
I won’t go as far as to say that Chicago can pull off an upset, but it has played a ton of close games this season.
Vegas has been overvalued all season long – leading to a 5-9 ATS record – and I think we’re getting a similar situation on Thursday night.